I recently posted Robert Fogel’s great article (http://hooversworld.com/archives/3394) about the future of China, in which he was extremely optimistic about that country’s future. Especially the size of their economy.
Then I watched two Chinese figure skating teams blow past the historic champions, the Russians, in the winter Olympics in Vancouver. Those folks are hell-bent on being winners, and there are so many of them!
Between these two things I could not help but wonder how gracefully the United States will adjust over the next 50-100 years to becoming a secondary nation on the world stage. That sounds like a strong statement. And don’t get me wrong, I am not a pessimist. The US is my favorite country on earth and I consider myself a patriot. But each thing, institution, and idea has its era, its role on the great stage of life. While the US may continue to lead the world in creativity, education, and entrepreneurship – at least I hope so – we will no longer be “the world’s largest market” or “the world’s largest producer” for most products and services. Psychologically adjusting to this may be a challenge. Certainly a number of other nations have not matured “gracefully.”
No matter what you think, you have to know about China. While I have just started John and Doris Naisbitt’s China’s Megatrends: The 8 Pillars of a New Society (2010, Harper Business), it sure has my attention. I have been following John Naisbitt since I served on a panel with him, before he was famous, in about 1981. Then his 1982 book Megatrends confirmed my suspicions about the future of Austin, where I moved that year and started my first company. I have read enough of the new book to know it will open whole new ideas for me … and hopefully for you.



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